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Week 5: Rush Matchup, Stacks, Ranks
by breezeproduction
Week 4: Rush Matchup, Stacks, Ranks
by breezeproduction
Rush Matchup
Stack Ranks
Top Stack Combos
I adjusted net ownership weighting up to 30% to push some of the lower owned options up in rankings. H-Value Rank is actual rank outside of everything else. Allen/Diggs/Andrews and Lamar/Andrews/Diggs as combo goes lower owned than you think since its so expensive. Josh Allen (Cheat code) dropped 63 times last week and hasn't completed less than 26 passes yet (2 blowouts). Kyler and Herbert only others that can compare to that volume.
Week 4 Cheat Sheets
Injuries to Lions, Bears, Giants leading to value. Jamaal Williams, Khalil Herbert, Det WR/TE, Richie James all popping up. What could go wrong. Great matchup for Williams, still only expecting 60% or so snaps with Reynolds possible Justin Jackson getting looks as well (tilt incoming). Herbert def looks solid and price is good but is the Bears and they are away dogs. At least DET guys in a Dome vs bottom 5 defense. Richie James at +20% should be fade/underweight in large field.
CMC probably comes in closer to 5%. Rhule fighting for his job and Baker sucks so pending any news on injury going to force 10-15% but don't feel great about it.
Week 3: Rush Matchup, Stacks, Ranks
by breezeproduction
Week 3 - Stef Diggs comes in way under priced and Josh Allen is playing at entire another level so stack rankings heavily skewed toward Bills with Mia WRs. Miami is #1 PROE and all the volume going to two guys - Hill, Waddle.
Prior to this year Josh Allen stack hit rate was league high 45%; 65% single and 35% double stacks. Last week was not very competitive but snap % without Gabe Davis - Jake Kumerow 73%, Diggs 66%, McKenzie 46%, Crowder 23%. Josh Allen pre 2022 successful stack breakout below -
Rush Matchup Rankings
Stack Ranks
Top Stack Combos
Week 3 Ranks Cheat Sheet
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Week 1: Rush Matchup, Stacks, Ranks
by breezeproduction
Rush Matchup Rankings
Stack Rankings
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breezeproduction Ranks
Stacking Smarter
By breezeproduction
QB Tendencies and Trends
- Upper tier "Passing" QB tend to have higher percentage double and triple stack.
- Mobile QBs higher percentage of single stacks due to ability to "get there" with legs.
- Lower tier QBs also more likely to be single stack, which makes sense -
- Asking too much for double stack
- Tendency to focus on 1 WR
- Lower price so need less to get there
- Much less likely to have 350+ and 3+ td than upper tier QB
- Cousins much higher hit rate than expected and very consolidated volume (although lower QB ceiling)
- Josh Allen stack distribution very spread out - likely magnified due to Diggs double coverage
- RB1 inclusion much more likely in high octane, high scoring offenses (outside of Bills)
- Brady, Cousins, Burrow highest % Double+
- Allen, Wilson, Murray highest % Single
Bringback Breakout vs Main Stack
- Brady stacks - bringback with WR. TB focus on taking away run
- Herbert stack - preferred bring RB. LAC scheme wants you to run
- Higher no bringback % indicates more likely to not take foot off the gas
Opposing Team Stack Against Hit Rate and Bringback Breakout
- Stack against hit rate > 20% - MIN, TEN, ATL, KC, CLE, TB, PHI, LV, JAX, DET
- Combination of bad defenses and high octane offenses (CLE outlier)
- MIN and TEN great to stack against because bringbacks are consolidated and high ceilings
- Stack hit rate < ~10% - NYG, GB, CAR, CHI, DEN, LAR, NO
- Combination of elite defenses and teams with slow and below average offenses
- Teams to focus on RB bringback - TEN, IND, CLE, NE, MIN, JAX, DAL
- Lean toward run heavier teams and also RBs that can break big runs
- Double bringback WR, RB1 - 15% of the time. Likely under-utilized by field.
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